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Baja Hurricane Study

I analyzed the record of named storms that hit or approached Baja from 1996 through 2004.  I used data posted by Tom Metcalf of the University of Hawaii.  Click here to link to Tom's web site.

I did the analysis out of curiosity as to the likely behavior of major storms in the areas we plan to cruise.  This is an analysis of weather systems which are quite capable of breaking historical trends.  Nevertheless, I confirmed and made the following observations:

  1. October 31 is the end of storm season in the Baja.
  2. Northern Baja rarely experiences named storms stronger than gale force. 
  3. Central Baja saw three named storms in the last 10 years stronger than gale force.
  4. Storm frequency increases to the south.
  5. September is the biggest month for named storms.
  6. October is the second biggest month for named storms.
  7. Most named storms track west or Northwest across the Pacific.
  8. Some named storms turn north or Northwest and hit Baja and very occasionally California.

No name storms and gales are likely a factor so as always preparation for rough weather and vigilance would seem appropriate regardless of the season.

You can download the my summary data by clicking here. Tom's web site has the detail data of all the named storms world wide. (and some un-named).  You can also get my zip file containing the Baja related hurricane tracks and summary data for the Baja related storms by clicking here.

The American's NOAA web site is at  NOAA has am email based tropical storm warning system useful for tracking current storm activity.